Most market commentary tells you what someone thinks. This tells you what was measured. One number, published every week.
Ten days ago this read 78.1. Now it reads 71.9: the 30-day range widened from 9.1% to 13.3%, realized volatility rose from 24.6% to 29.1%, and volume eased further below its 90-day base. Some noise has returned. The market is still quieter than most of the last 400 days.
The Silence Index places today against the last 400 days of the same asset. A reading of 0 means this is the loudest the market has been in that window. A reading of 100 means it is the quietest.
Each component is converted into a percentile against its own 400-day history, then averaged. No weighting, no discretion, no adjustment after the fact.
| Component | What it captures | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Range compression | 30-day high to low, against average price | quieter than 76% |
| Realized volatility | Annualised deviation of 30-day returns | quieter than 81% |
| Volume fade | 30-day volume against the 90-day baseline | quieter than 58% |
Source & method. Daily open, high, low, close and volume for BTCUSD, aggregated across exchanges, from Financial Modeling Prep. Percentiles are taken against the trailing 400 days. The calculation is a fixed script — no weighting, no discretion, no adjustment after the fact. A different data feed gives a slightly different reading, which is why this one is named.
The Silence Index does not predict direction. Silence can precede a rise and it can precede a fall. The index describes a state; it is never a signal to buy or sell. Anyone who tells you a quiet market must break upward is selling you a feeling, not a measurement.
This page exists so the number can be checked, argued with and tracked over time. That is the whole point. A claim you cannot verify is an opinion wearing a lab coat.
| Date | Reading | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2025 | 97.4 | Quietest in the entire dataset |
| January 2026 | 94.4 | Peak of the last 400 days |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 71.4 | First published baseline |
| 15 Aug 2026 | 96.4 | Third quietest of 840 days measured |
| 19 Aug 2026 | 75.8 | The break · fell 19 points in one day as price rose 7.1% |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 31.9 | Restless · −64.5 points in 16 days |
| 3 Sep 2026 | 21.2 | Noise · −75.2 points in 19 days, while price rose 29% |
| 12 Sep 2026 | 15.2 | Noise · volume now heavier than its own 90-day baseline |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 36.5 | Restless · +21 points in 9 days as the range tightened |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 37.8 | Restless · +1.3 points in 4 days |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 41.0 | Normal · +3.2 points in 7 days |
| 11 Oct 2026 | 50.4 | Normal · +9.4 points in 9 days |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 52.2 | Normal · +1.8 points in 5 days |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 78.1 | Loud silence · +25.9 points in 7 days |
| 2 Nov 2026 | 71.9 | Current reading · quiet · −6.2 points in 10 days |
A new reading goes out every Saturday as part of the Workshop Notes, together with the chart and one sentence on what changed. No predictions, no targets — just the measurement and what it describes.
The Mindset Series — five short books on trading psychology, waves, Fibonacci and risk. The same discipline that produced this index.
See the books