Most market commentary tells you what someone thinks. This tells you what was measured. One number, published every week.
The crowd did not flee. It simply stopped watching. Boredom empties a room faster than fear.
The Silence Index places today against the last 400 days of the same asset. A reading of 0 means this is the loudest the market has been in that window. A reading of 100 means it is the quietest.
Each component is converted into a percentile against its own 400-day history, then averaged. No weighting, no discretion, no adjustment after the fact.
| Component | What it captures | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Range compression | 30-day high to low, against average price | quieter than 68% |
| Realized volatility | Annualised deviation of 30-day returns | quieter than 69% |
| Volume fade | 30-day volume against the 90-day baseline | quieter than 77% |
The Silence Index does not predict direction. Silence can precede a rise and it can precede a fall. The index describes a state; it is never a signal to buy or sell. Anyone who tells you a quiet market must break upward is selling you a feeling, not a measurement.
This page exists so the number can be checked, argued with and tracked over time. That is the whole point. A claim you cannot verify is an opinion wearing a lab coat.
| Date | Reading | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2025 | 97.4 | Quietest in the entire dataset |
| January 2026 | 94.4 | Peak of the last 400 days |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 71.4 | Current baseline |
A new reading goes out every Saturday as part of the Workshop Notes, together with the chart and one sentence on what changed. No predictions, no targets — just the measurement and what it describes.
The Mindset Series — five short books on trading psychology, waves, Fibonacci and risk. The same discipline that produced this index.
See the books