Most market commentary tells you what someone thinks. This tells you what was measured. One number, published every week.
Nine days ago this read 15.2. Now it reads 36.5: the 30-day range has narrowed to quieter than 57% of the last 400 days, while volume is still heavier than on 87% of them. The noise is fading. The silence has not arrived.
The Silence Index places today against the last 400 days of the same asset. A reading of 0 means this is the loudest the market has been in that window. A reading of 100 means it is the quietest.
Each component is converted into a percentile against its own 400-day history, then averaged. No weighting, no discretion, no adjustment after the fact.
| Component | What it captures | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Range compression | 30-day high to low, against average price | quieter than 57% |
| Realized volatility | Annualised deviation of 30-day returns | quieter than 40% |
| Volume fade | 30-day volume against the 90-day baseline | quieter than 13% |
Source & method. Daily open, high, low, close and volume for BTCUSD, aggregated across exchanges, from Financial Modeling Prep. Percentiles are taken against the trailing 400 days. The calculation is a fixed script — no weighting, no discretion, no adjustment after the fact. A different data feed gives a slightly different reading, which is why this one is named.
The Silence Index does not predict direction. Silence can precede a rise and it can precede a fall. The index describes a state; it is never a signal to buy or sell. Anyone who tells you a quiet market must break upward is selling you a feeling, not a measurement.
This page exists so the number can be checked, argued with and tracked over time. That is the whole point. A claim you cannot verify is an opinion wearing a lab coat.
| Date | Reading | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2025 | 97.4 | Quietest in the entire dataset |
| January 2026 | 94.4 | Peak of the last 400 days |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 71.4 | First published baseline |
| 15 Aug 2026 | 96.4 | Third quietest of 840 days measured |
| 19 Aug 2026 | 75.8 | The break · fell 19 points in one day as price rose 7.1% |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 31.9 | Restless · −64.5 points in 16 days |
| 3 Sep 2026 | 21.2 | Noise · −75.2 points in 19 days, while price rose 29% |
| 12 Sep 2026 | 15.2 | Noise · volume now heavier than its own 90-day baseline |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 36.5 | Current reading · restless · +21 points in 9 days as the range tightened |
A new reading goes out every Saturday as part of the Workshop Notes, together with the chart and one sentence on what changed. No predictions, no targets — just the measurement and what it describes.
The Mindset Series — five short books on trading psychology, waves, Fibonacci and risk. The same discipline that produced this index.
See the books