◆  Dawinchy
The Silence Index

How quiet is this market,
against its own history?

Most market commentary tells you what someone thinks. This tells you what was measured. One number, published every week.

Latest reading · Bitcoin
71.4
Quiet
Measured 29 July 2026

The crowd did not flee. It simply stopped watching. Boredom empties a room faster than fear.

What the number means

The Silence Index places today against the last 400 days of the same asset. A reading of 0 means this is the loudest the market has been in that window. A reading of 100 means it is the quietest.

0 — loudest50100 — quietest

The three components

Each component is converted into a percentile against its own 400-day history, then averaged. No weighting, no discretion, no adjustment after the fact.

ComponentWhat it capturesLatest
Range compression30-day high to low, against average pricequieter than 68%
Realized volatilityAnnualised deviation of 30-day returnsquieter than 69%
Volume fade30-day volume against the 90-day baselinequieter than 77%

The line we do not cross

The Silence Index does not predict direction. Silence can precede a rise and it can precede a fall. The index describes a state; it is never a signal to buy or sell. Anyone who tells you a quiet market must break upward is selling you a feeling, not a measurement.

This page exists so the number can be checked, argued with and tracked over time. That is the whole point. A claim you cannot verify is an opinion wearing a lab coat.

Notable readings

DateReadingNote
23 Feb 202597.4Quietest in the entire dataset
January 202694.4Peak of the last 400 days
29 Jul 202671.4Current baseline

Published weekly

A new reading goes out every Saturday as part of the Workshop Notes, together with the chart and one sentence on what changed. No predictions, no targets — just the measurement and what it describes.

Where the thinking comes from

The Mindset Series — five short books on trading psychology, waves, Fibonacci and risk. The same discipline that produced this index.

See the books